Post Election Report

By Evie Zois Sweeney
Muchmore Harrington Smalley & Associates
Senior Lobbyist

November 2012 – As the dust continues to settle after last week’s election, a clearer picture begins to unfold, as pundits, political insiders and average Michiganders continue to recover from an election cycle that included unprecedented levels of spending, a barrage of media and print activity, and a number of incumbent upsets in the State House.

As expected, Presidential turnout impacted races further down the ticket and as a result, a number of House GOP members will not be returning to Lansing in January.  What is interesting, however, is that the large turnout for the President’s party did not transfer into success for those supporting some of the ballot proposals, most notably Proposals 2 and 4.

The Presidential Election

Despite a limping economy, a significantly divisive health policy agenda, and unprecedented levels of national debt, President Barack Obama will be inaugurated the 44th President of the United States. President Obama easily won Michigan with a nine point spread over “native son” Mitt Romney.  His Michigan win was rather anti-climatic as the state was called surprisingly early after the polls closed.  

Michigan Supreme Court

No major surprises for the state’s highest court as incumbent Justices Stephen Markman and Brian Zahra will be donning their robes again next year. Perhaps the most intriguing nugget of news surrounding the race was the fact that Democratic U of M Law Professor and now Justice-elect, Bridget McCormack, actually received 6,200 more votes than incumbent Justice Markman.  Nonetheless, the Supreme Court remains under Republican control, 4-3.

Michigan House of Representatives

The State House races undisputedly provided some of the most stress-inducing and exciting moments of the night, as a strong Democratic turnout had Republicans worried well into the early hours of Wednesday morning. With a number of races neck and neck and a handful of GOP incumbents losing hotly contested races, at one point Democrats looked poised to potentially take back the House. Less than 5,000 votes prevented the Democrats from seizing control of the chamber.  Although the GOP ultimately maintained the majority, five incumbent Representatives lost their races. The GOP secured 59 seats with the Democrats now at 51.

Ballot Proposals

Much has been said and hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent on this year’s ballot questions.  The general theme sounded by Michigan voters was that the State’s Constitution is not something to be tampered with lightly.  Voters overwhelmingly rejected the five proposed Constitutional Amendments while also rejecting the enactment of Public Act 4 of 2011 – the Emergency Financial Manager Referendum.  Below are the results of the six ballot questions:

Proposal 1: Emergency Manager Referendum YES – 48% NO – 52%
Proposal 2: Collective Bargaining Amendment  YES – 42% NO – 58%
Proposal 3: Renewable Energy 25/25 Standard YES – 37% NO – 63%
Proposal 4: Home Health Care Unionization YES – 43% NO – 57%
Proposal 5: 2/3 Supermajority on Taxes YES – 31% NO – 69%
Proposal 6: Detroit Bridge Public Vote YES – 40% NO – 60%

Conclusions

While many conclusions will be drawn over the ensuing weeks, one underlying electoral truism held firm this election: Michigan voters have a long history of being unpredictable and producing wild swings, specifically in the Michigan House, at the ballot from cycle to cycle.  It was also clear the state’s voters are very protective of their constitution.  What final conclusion can be drawn from all of this?  The campaign for 2012 is officially closed and the campaign for 2014 has officially opened!